The 1990
Transportation Study undertook to forecast expected traffic volumes
throughout the Town for a 10,000 population horizon. As the Town has now
effectively reached that horizon, the 2002 Transportation Study seeks to update the previous study with
adjusted land use and population forecasts.
Bunt &
Associates undertook data collection exercises (as outlined later in this
report) and then developed a comparison of daily traffic volumes on selected
roadway links to compare the 1990 forecasts for the 10,000 population horizon,
and the actual observed volumes as per the 2002 Bunt & Associates data
collection program. The results of this comparison are outlined in Table 2.1.
Locations where significant differences were noted are illustrated in bold text in Table 2.1. Note that some locations showed large percentage differences, though the actual volumes themselves were quite modest. The locations noted in bold text in the table represent those locations where the forecast volumes from 1990 for the 10,000 population horizon are significantly different from the volumes observed by Bunt & Associates in 2002 when the population was approximately 9500. Specific trends noted in the forecast variances include the following:
· The Highway 12 volumes forecast for the 10,000 population horizon in 1990 are high. This suggests that the growth rates for through traffic used in the 1990 modeling exercise may have been too high.
· The Highway 2A volumes forecast for the 10,000 population horizon in 1990 are high. This suggests that the 1990 model may have overstated the proportion of traffic (and therefore employment) north of the Town.
· The volumes forecast for the 10,000 population horizon in 1990 for both 58th Street and 50th Street north of 54th Avenue are high. This suggests that the growth in residential development may have been greater elsewhere in the Town than was assumed in the 1990 model. As well, this overstatement is consistent with the overage noted in the previous bullet for Highway 2A north.
· The volumes forecast for the 10,000 population horizon in the 1990 model on Woodland Drive west of 45th Street are too high. There is no obvious explanation for this difference. Table 2.1
A reduction in through traffic growth on Highway 12 and a reduction in employment assumed to be located north of the Town would reduce or eliminate most of the major differences noted here. As well, that same reduction in employment north of the Town would serve to reduce the volumes on many of the other links as well. In short, with the changes noted here, the model exercise undertaken in 1990 for the 10,000 population horizon appears to be reasonably consistent with the actual 10,000 population conditions observed in 2002 by Bunt & Associates.
In terms of road network recommendations, the network recommended in the 1990 Transportation Study continues to be reasonably well suited to the growing needs of the Town of Lacombe. Expansion and revision of the network is certainly necessary to accommodate growth to the 20,000 population horizon, and this is to be expected. The recommendations made by Bunt & Associates in this report will serve to achieve this end.