In order to develop traffic forecasts for the 20,000 population horizon, Bunt & Associates obtained base information from the Town and Alberta Transportation that allowed for the development of a traffic assignment model. The assumed land use is illustrated on Exhibit 8-1. Specific base information that was collected and utilized in the analysis included the following:
Existing Population:
The existing population of Lacombe was provided by the Town of Lacombe based on 2001 municipal census data. The population was assessed at 9252 people, and the distribution of that population was established based on census tracts as obtained from Statistics Canada.
Existing Employment:
The location of existing employment in Lacombe was estimated by the Town of Lacombe for each of the transportation zones. The information was generic (number of jobs per zone). More specific information regarding the job type, developed floor area (office, industrial or retail) and other factors were not available and were therefore estimated by Bunt & Associates based on observed development, typical FAR and other factors. Additional information was obtained from Statistics Canada regarding place of work versus place of residence. Specifically, the following employment information was obtained based on the 1996 census:
o
The number of people who
live in Lacombe that also work in Lacombe, but not by location or job type.
o
The number of people who
live in Lacombe, but work outside of Lacombe and the location of this work
place.
o
The number of people who
live outside of Lacombe, but work in Lacombe.
Retaining the same ratios, Bunt & Associates converted the 1996 data to current (2002) conditions, based on the most recent population data provided by the Town of Lacombe as shown in Table 8.1.
The data indicated that approximately 50% of the persons living in Lacombe who have a usual place of work are employed outside of Lacombe. After discussion with the Town, this proportion was assumed to remain constant for the 20,000 population horizon.
The Town of Lacombe was then divided into 27
separate transportation zones to aid in the assignment and distribution of
traffic. The existing population and employment figures were then distributed to
this zone system as illustrated on Exhibit
8-2.
The completion of these tasks provided Bunt & Associates with a representation of population and employment distribution within the Town as well as among the surrounding areas. This base information was vetted by the Town and verified to be accurate to the extent possible. It was therefore utilized as a basis for analysis in the forecasting exercise for the 20,000 population horizon.