8.3   Population and Employment Forecasts

8.3.1       Population Forecasts

Projected population was distributed based on outline plans and area structure plans available for the Town of Lacombe:

·        North Area Structure Plan (Elizabeth Park, Northwest, College Heights and Terrace Heights Outline Plans)

·        Southeast Area Structure Plan (MacKenzie Ranch Outline Plan)

·        West Area Structure Plan

It was found that based on available residential areas within Town Limits, the population can increase beyond the 20,000 population horizon. Therefore the possible population in some areas needed to be decreased. Areas without outline plans (within transportation Zones 2, 14, and 21) were chosen to be reduced by 35% to achieve a population limit of 20,000 people.

The 2001 Municipal Census indicated that in Lacombe there were 2.65 persons per household. This value was applied to calculate the future population based on the number of dwelling units in the planned communities. Future communities with outline plans indicate the expected number of dwelling units within the community, the exception was Elizabeth Park, where the number of dwelling units was not estimated in the outline plan; this information was obtained from Town of Lacombe staff.

According to the Land Use map, there are lands zoned residential which do not yet have outline plans. The number of dwelling units on these lands was estimated by the expected density per hectare (10 units/ hectare for single family and 80 units/ hectare for multi-family) which was also provided by Town of Lacombe staff. When all the possible residential developments were summarized, it was found that the maximum population of Lacombe based on the outline plans and residential land zoning would be greater than 20,000 (approximately 22,500). To reduce the population to the 20,000 horizon, the areas within Zones 2, 14, and 21 without outline plans were reduced by 35%. Table 8.2 summarizes the existing and expected population per zone (only zones with residential areas are shown).


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