The 1996 Census indicated that there were approximately 2100 jobs in Lacombe. Based on the population increase from 8,000 in 1996 to 9,300 in 2001, the current number of jobs was estimated at 2400. Based on information from Town of Lacombe staff, these jobs were distributed within the transportation zones.
It was estimated that the number of jobs would remain at the same jobs to population ratio (approximately 25%) at the 20,000 population horizon; therefore an additional 2600 jobs were distributed in Town for the 20,000 population horizon. The Town of Lacombe was unable to provide this information, therefore the future jobs were distributed based
on expected development on industrial and commercial lands according to the land use map. Table 8.3 summarizes the job distribution in the transportation zones (only zones with jobs are illustrated).
For the purpose of this report it was assumed that the jobs to population ratio within Lacombe would remain at the same level at approximately 0.25, or 2400 jobs for 9,300 people. This corresponded to approximately 5000 jobs in Lacombe at the 20,000 population horizon.
The employment at the 20,000 population horizon was distributed based on discussions with the Town, and Bunt & Associates assessment of reasonable expectations for development. Review of the available areas within the Town confirmed that all of the increase in employment expected within the Town could indeed be accommodated with in the Town boundaries. As such, some of the employment areas were shown to develop at less than their full capacity so as to balance the growth in employment against the growth in floor area. As well, some areas were increased at rates greater than others, again in consultation with the Town.
Specific examples of changes recommended and assumed by Bunt & Associates include the following:
Downtown
Initial suggestions by the Town called for zero growth within the Downtown zone. The previous 1990 study assumed an increase of 60% in this area. Bunt & Associates opinion was that there would indeed be growth within the Downtown as redevelopment occurred, particularly in light of the objectives of the Town as outlined in studies such as the Heart of the Town study. As such, Bunt & Associates recommended a growth rate of 50% for the Downtown zone.
North Highway Commercial
This area was assumed to be partially developed at the 20,000 population horizon. A total of 100 jobs were assumed to be provided in this area. The modest growth in this area was rationalized based on the assumed desirability and feasibility to see the West Area in Zone 1 build out more rapidly (given servicing, proximity to both Highway 12 and 2 and the accompanying interchange, etc.).
For the purpose of calculating shopping trip generation, the retail floor area was required in each transportation zone. The Town of Lacombe staff was not able to provide floor areas for the existing and future retail developments. The existing and future retail floor area was estimated based on the estimated number of employees. A floor area of 750 ft2 was used per employee to estimate the gross floor area of retail development.
It was estimated that in zones 9 and 22, 100% of the jobs would be retail jobs. For the downtown commercial areas, it was estimated that 50% of the jobs would be retail jobs. In the remaining areas, the number of retail jobs was estimated based on the land area expected to be developed as retail compared with office, industrial, etc. lands. Table 8.4 summarizes the retail floor area calculations for the existing and future conditions.
For trip generation purposes it was assumed that retail areas would have an employee density of approximately one employee per 750 ft2.