8.5    Trip Distribution and Assignment

Once the trip generation rates had been initially determined, the trips generated by residential areas were distributed (outbound) to the retail and employment areas (inbound) based on the ratio of shopping and job trips received by each retail and employment zone. Employment zones included jobs outside of Lacombe; these trips were assigned to the four external nodes on the boundaries of Lacombe.

Trips generated by the existing retail and employment zones areas were distributed (outbound) to the residential zones (inbound) based on the percent population in each transportation zone. The in and outbound trips were then balanced against each other and compared to the raw trip generation rates assumed for each zone. Screen line volumes were also assessed at various locations within the Town to verify the volumes passing particular intersections and links.

In this manner (and by comparing the output with the observed traffic volumes throughout the Town) it was possible to determine (a) where too much or too little traffic had been assigned to/from a particular zone or zones, (b) routes that had been assigned too much or too little traffic based on existing traffic distributions, and (c) areas where the trip generation rates may have been too high or too low.

This process of calibration was repeated several times for the existing conditions until the forecast distribution and traffic volumes were within 20% of the observed traffic volumes on the roadways. At this point, it was confirmed that the model was calibrated and that the trips generation rates, trip routes, and distribution to and from the various zones was accurate to a point that would be suitable for forecasting purposes. The distribution used in the development of the 20,000 population horizon traffic forecasts is summarized here in Table 8.5.

The process of assigning traffic based on the expanded population and employment forecasts for the 20,000 population horizon was then undertaken using the calibrated existing conditions as a template. Traffic volumes were assigned to the future base road network (the current approved road network) and assumptions were made as to routing given travel time and other criteria in cases where new routes were expected to be available. The volumes were then modified to include all elements of the Town’s currently approved road network as illustrated on Exhibit 8-3. As well, specific sensitivity analyses were undertaken to determine the impact of closing Maple Drive north of 63rd Avenue, closing 58th Street and Highway 2.

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