Downtown
employment is expected to grow by 50% as Lacombe reaches the 20,000 population
level. The type of employment growth is unknown and for the purposes of this
review the additional employment is considered to be similar to what exists at
the 10,000 population level. In addition to the employment the future parking
forecast also assumes that the future customer and visitor parking demand in the
downtown remains proportional to the employment growth.
These
assumptions allow the 20,000 parking forecasts to be based on linear growth in
the downtown. The present peak parking demand is for 927 stalls, representing a
utilization rate of 40.3%. Applying a straight line growth trend to employment,
customers and visitors suggests the future, 20,000 population, parking demand
will be in the order of 1400 parking stalls. This represents a peak parking
utilization requirement in the order of 62% of the present estimated parking
supply.
How the
additional employment will be accommodated in the downtown has not been
identified, however, it can be expected that some of the existing sites will be
redeveloped and some new sites, presently parking, will be used for this new
development. The new development may reduce the available parking supply to an
extent unknown at this time.
Exhibit
9-2
As the
future downtown land uses are unknown at this time a sensitivity analysis was
completed to determine how many parking stalls could be lost to redevelopment
before the forecast parking demand reached the 85% practical capacity level.
This analysis indicates that the required parking supply for the 20,000 downtown
parking forecast is 1650 stalls, which would allow future development to consume
625 parking stalls from the present estimated downtown parking supply. Note that
this number is at best a rough estimate and considerations such as density of
development and walking distance should be considered. Parking stalls available
for use two blocks from the destination may not be utilized and although the
overall parking supply is theoretically adequate, customers and visitors may
perceive it to be inadequate. Likewise, underutilized parking stalls on adjacent
private property may not be available for use by employees, visitors and
customers to adjacent businesses.
Any future
development in the downtown should include the requirement for the developer to
identify and/or provide sufficient off-street parking within acceptable walking
distance.